Canada Economics Weekly Declining household net worth raises red flags For the past decade households have been on a debt-financed consumption and housing investment spree, reinforced recently by historically low interest rates. This trend has been accompanied by rising... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More regional evidence on house prices New regional house price data show that many metropolitan areas have seen existing house prices rise sharply from already elevated levels this year. We think these facts count towards dispelling the... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's up with income growth? The recent slowdown in growth of wages and salaries is fairly notable by historical standards. In the third quarter at least, overall personal income growth was also dampened by the effect of lower... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business confidence key to investment outlook After expanding very strongly in the first half of this year, we now estimate that business investment grew at a tepid pace in the third quarter. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to expect... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New forecast consensus still too high Although most private-sector forecasters have revised down their GDP forecasts for Canada, they still seem too high to us. The latest surveys show that consensus expectations for real GDP growth over... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are leading indicators pointing to trouble ahead? With concerns over Europe's fiscal and financial mess dominating the headlines, domestic investors largely ignored the news last week that Statistics Canada's composite leading index suggests that... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Could housing investment growth re-accelerate? The recent surge in multi-unit housing starts indicates that new construction activity could boost overall residential investment growth for at least one or two more quarters, possibly even into early... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the loonie's downward trend set to continue? The downward trend in the Canadian dollar, or loonie, against the US dollar over the last two months is broadly consistent with the deterioration in the global economic outlook and the resulting slide... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What does the euro-zone crisis mean for Canada? The fiscal crisis in the euro-zone is threatening to derail the global economic recovery. Although Canada is a very open economy with exports still accounting for 30% of GDP, shipments to the euro... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy headed for recession? Recession fears and concerns are understandable, considering that second-quarter GDP contracted and monthly import data received thus far hints at falling business investment, which has been a key... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stand ready As the outlook for global economic growth deteriorates markedly, there is a growing likelihood that more policy stimulus will eventually be required in Canada. With its key short-term rate at 1.0%... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tightening financial conditions cast more doubt Judging by the declines in the Bank of Canada's Financial Conditions Index (FCI), financial conditions appear to have tightened recently, despite somewhat lower bond yields. Although the amount of... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's all the fuss about real GDI? Most analysts agree that real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is another useful indication of economic activity. For the purposes of monetary policy, however, what ultimately matters, more than any other... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
