Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian firms hampered by lack of competitiveness Those hoping that the expected pick-up in US domestic demand growth will drive an export-led recovery in Canada are likely to be disappointed. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have suffered a... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's second-quarter GDP slowdown Canada's economy contracted sharply at the end of the second quarter, but only partly because of one-off factors related to severe floods and a brief labour strike. For the second quarter as a whole... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some exporters could benefit from European recovery Canada's trade with the euro-zone is small, so any sustained European recovery would provide only modest support to Canadian export growth. That said, there are a few industries that might benefit... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Homebuilders are having a Wile E. Coyote moment While housing starts have displayed some surprising resilience over the past several months, which would seem to support the consensus view that the housing market is enjoying a soft landing, more... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers' struggles likely to persist Canadian manufacturing production is being hampered by sluggish foreign demand and, to a lesser extent, moderating domestic demand. While gradually improving US demand is providing much needed support... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank's second-quarter GDP estimate is too low We think the Bank of Canada has over-estimated the negative impacts on second-quarter GDP from Alberta's recent major flood and Quebec's construction labour strike. Instead of 1.0% annualised, we... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada should weather China's slowdown Canada should weather China's economic slowdown relatively well, with fairly minor consequences for economic growth. Since China represents a fairly small share of Canada's total exports, any slowdown... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exports and business investment lacking punch The Bank of Canada has set its economic growth hopes on a revival in exports and business investment. Unfortunately, exports and business investment appear to have lost much needed momentum in the... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Forward guidance might benefit economy The recent rise in rate expectations and bond yields might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider providing some concrete forward guidance in its next policy statement. While the Bank need not go as... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household sector sensitive to higher long-term rates The recent improvement in the global economic outlook and changing prospects for US monetary policy in particular have prompted us to revise our global bond yield forecasts moderately higher... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher unit labour costs are a false alarm The rise in the annual growth rate of unit labour costs has more to do with declining labour productivity, rather than any acceleration in the growth rate of labour compensation. Looking ahead, we... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's housing downturn mirroring US slump Home building in Canada is on an ominous downward slope, similar in many ways to what happened in the early stages of the slump in the US. For this reason we think it is premature for policymakers to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deflation alert Underlying inflation has fallen below the Bank of Canada's inflation 1% to 3% target range and could decline even further if the real economy underperforms this year. Accordingly, without additional... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
