Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter economic rebound won't be sustained Canada's economic rebound in the second quarter mainly reflects a bounce-back after bad winter weather dampened economic activity in the first quarter of this year and certain one-off factors that... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slack in labour market has increased Canadian labour market conditions appear to have deteriorated over the past year and a half, even though the unemployment rate has been unchanged. While net employment gains have been unusually weak... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's equity market rally likely to simmer down The recent rally in Canada's benchmark stock market index, which has risen by 24% over the past 12 months, took it to a new record high last week. What's more impressive from our vantage point is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling long-term interest rates not just a Canadian story The recent decline in Government of Canada bond yields is consistent with market participants revising down their longer-term expectations of the future path of the overnight policy interest rate... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy struggling to shrug off winter blues In contrast to the upbeat news coming out of the US, the more Canadian data we see on economic activity in March, the less reassured we are that the softness in the preceding three months was just a... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing correction only a matter of timing While the recent strength of Canada's housing market has been astounding, the regional breakdown reveals that it has begun to fray at the edges. With house prices already declining in some smaller... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's export engine still spluttering Canada's exports have continued to underperform, despite gradually improving US economic conditions and the fall in the previously high-flying Canadian dollar. Although the bad weather partly explains... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Regional disparity a dilemma for the Bank of Canada Canada's uneven regional economic performance presents a dilemma for the Bank of Canada. While natural resource-rich provinces flourished last year, those that are reliant on manufacturing struggled... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
