Global Economics Focus How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy? AI-related spending is giving a significant boost to aggregate demand and GDP growth in some countries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are the US, where the bulk of the spending is occurring, and... 20th March 2026 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Focus US still tops AI index, but China surges up the rankings We have updated our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the long-run benefits of AI. The US still leads. The Asian tigers and UK... 17th February 2026 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus Can EM financial market outperformance continue? After a broad‑based rally in Emerging Markets (EM) assets since the beginning of last year, we think that the scope for outsized returns is now limited to only a few corners of the market. We expect... 12th February 2026 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus What Japan’s election could mean for its financial markets This weekend’s election in Japan could be bad news for JGBs if the LDP emerges victorious and this prompts expectations of even more fiscal stimulus. That might not be good for the yen either. But it... 4th February 2026 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2026 Donald Trump’s tariff policies and his aggressive foreign policy approach are straining relationships with traditional US allies. One consequence that is apparent in our Global Fracturing Dashboard is... 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Gilts remain the sick man of the bond market? We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank... 13th November 2025 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Are US stocks really worth a higher valuation than the rest? The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US... 28th August 2025 · 14 mins read
India Economics Focus India and foreign market access: opening the gates India is now home to some of the world’s largest financial markets, but foreign access remains limited. That will change over time as policymakers continue to liberalise the capital account, but it is... 29th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Equities Focus Trump’s agenda isn’t “game over” for ESG investing Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG, investing has come under renewed pressure due to pushback from the new US president. Despite that, we think that demand for ESG investments is here to... 25th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Bonds Focus Recessions, bubbles, and US high-yield spreads We don’t think US high-yield (HY) spreads would fall all the way back to their recent lows even if US recession concerns faded and a stock market bubble reinflated. And we think they would rise... 20th March 2025 · 14 mins read
Equities Focus Is AI a game changer for the US utilities sector? We think that the US utilities sector will outperform the other 'defensive' sectors in the stock market in 2025 and keep pace with the S&P 500, which we expect to rise to 7,000 this year, as utilities... 24th February 2025 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
