Asia Economics Update Should Asia fear a repeat of 1994? As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a moderate pick-up New Zealand’s economy grew slower than expected in Q1, as drought hit the agricultural sector. A pick-up is likely over the coming quarters, but weak export demand and tight fiscal policy will prevent... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee weakness complicates India's policy outlook Growing concern about the rupee’s decline and lingering worries about inflation appear to have been the key factors in the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.25%... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rest of Asia unlikely to follow Indonesia's tightening path Bank Indonesia’s unexpected decision to hike its main policy rate today reflects concern about recent downward pressure on the rupiah and worries over the inflation outlook. Further hikes will follow... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will remain reluctant to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today. We continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold until the end of the year and to be kept low in 2014. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee decline highlights India’s fundamental weaknesses Talk of “policy tapering” by the Federal Reserve has been the catalyst for a broad-based sell-off in emerging market currencies. Within Asia, the worst performer has been the rupee. Its decline... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes in Indonesia's Fasbi rate likely before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision today to hike the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits (also known as the Fasbi rate) reflects concerns about the weakness of the rupiah and falls in the level of... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's growth to be dragged lower by mining slowdown Australia’s GDP growth remained slightly below trend in Q1. We expect growth to slow over the coming quarters as monetary loosening is unlikely to fully offset cooling mining investment. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update May PMIs suggest manufacturing recovery continues to falter The May PMIs for emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing recovery has lost momentum. Most central banks have loosened monetary policy in recent months, but they will not be able to fully... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's recovery is underway, but it will be gradual Marginally stronger GDP growth signals a bottoming out of India's growth slump. But domestic demand remains weak. Against this background, and following its three rate cuts so far this year, we think... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong GDP growth in the Philippines makes rate cuts unlikely GDP growth in the Philippines accelerated in Q1 on the back of strong domestic demand. Against this background, we think the central bank will leave interest rates on hold for the rest of 2013. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's government will push for more rate cuts The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate for the first time since October at its meeting today, under heavy pressure from the government. Another rate cut is likely in the coming months. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore avoids Q1 contraction, but strong pick-up unlikely Today’s revised GDP data showed that Singapore's economy expanded in Q1, despite an advanced estimate released in mid-April pointing toward contraction. Nevertheless, weak export growth continues to... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's economy should rebound from weak Q1 Thailand’s economy struggled last quarter, but a modest rebound is likely over the coming quarters. Against this backdrop, we think the central bank will continue to resist pressure to cut rates. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s economy to settle at a slower growth rate Today’s GDP data show that Malaysia’s economy slowed more than expected in Q1. Subdued global demand is likely to prevent a strong recovery over the coming quarters. 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
