Asia Economics Update Currency weakness will not lead to inflation spike in Asia The recent sell-off in Asian currencies has sparked fears that the region is about to suffer a sharp spike in inflation. We think this is unlikely. While exchange rate depreciation can push up the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to cut rates before the end of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening before the end of the year, and think that rates will remain very low in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update August PMIs show Asian manufacturing sectors still struggling The August PMIs for Emerging Asia show that, outside of China, the region’s manufacturers are continuing to struggle, with the headline numbers now below 50 across the region. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower growth in Indonesia likely after recent rate hikes The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in the Philippines to remain strong GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q2, helped by buoyant domestic demand. The economy is well-placed to withstand recent turmoil in financial markets. Indeed, we still expect the... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How does India today compare with previous crises? The rupee continued to slide today, breaking through 65 to the US dollar for the first time. Newspaper headlines continue to talk of a crisis. In this Update we compare the current situation with... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia Markets Monitor (Aug.) Asian currencies and equity markets have been hit hard by the recent sell-off inemerging market assets with India and Indonesia the worst affected in the region.Bond yields have risen, but remain low... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s 2013 growth to disappoint The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 2.50% today. We continue to expect the central bank to keep rates low for the rest of 2013 before gradually tightening in 2014 as growth prospects improve. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay unchanged in 2013 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 2.50% today. We continue to expect the central bank to keep rates low for the rest of 2013 before gradually tightening in 2014 as growth prospects improve. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is India heading toward crisis? The slide of the rupee has triggered speculation that India is heading toward a balance of payments crisis. We do not think a crisis is on the cards, but the outlook is downbeat and fraught with risks... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A strong rebound in Thailand’s growth is unlikely Thailand’s Q2 GDP data showed continued weakness in the economy, and we do not expect much of a rebound in the second half of the year. Given the central bank’s limited scope to aggressively loosen... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today does not mean the end of the tightening cycle. However, with the recent spike in inflation likely to prove temporary and the economy... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's credit growth is a serious risk to the economy Thailand's private sector credit as a share of GDP has increased significantly in recent years, raising concerns about financial stability. Even if a crisis is avoided, current credit growth rates are... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in Korean rates on the horizon The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given continued low inflation and recent signs of a pick-up in GDP growth. We expect to see rates on hold... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia to keep policy loose as mining boom cools The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% at its meeting today. It is likely to keep rates very low over the next two years to support the economy through a mining slowdown... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
