Asia Economics Update Korea will struggle to reverse demographic decline The Korean government has made some welcome progress over recent years in encouraging more women into formal employment. But even if this trend continues, the size of the workforce in Korea looks set... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts not the start of aggressive easing cycle The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was able to cut rates today as a result of the resilience of the currency, but we doubt this will last. We think that the rupee will come under pressure again this... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea should change its mind soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold today in the face of a clear cut case for looser policy, but we think it will eventually change its stance. With the Bank likely to be looking... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates again, further tightening to come Concerns about high inflation and the country’s large current account deficit mean today’s 150bp rate hike by Pakistan central bank (SBP) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rate cuts unlikely despite dovish shift Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and hinted that it may consider loosening policy over the coming months. However, with the rupiah likely to lose more ground... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: elections bode poorly for long-run outlook The strong performance by Duterte’s supporters in the midterm elections should lead to further progress on pushing through economic reforms. However, the results will do little to stop the country’s... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: IMF deal to cause growth to slow Pakistan’s agreement with the IMF is likely to lead to slower growth and higher inflation in the short term. However, policy tightening and structural reforms should lead to an improvement in the... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts coming in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut interest rates by 25bp today, and further interest rate cuts seem only a matter of time. Given the subdued outlook for inflation and the dovish nature of... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates on hold this year Despite the downbeat outlook for Thailand’s economy, the central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Continued concerns over risks in the financial sector mean that it is... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another cut likely in Malaysia before year-end With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the worst now over for Korean exporters? The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to be left unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak export growth looks set to continue The most recent trade data, including the very weak outturn in Korean exports over the first 20 days of this month, suggest that regional trade remains in the doldrums. With the external sector facing... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
