Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for an extended pause The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.75%, but sounded a little more worried than previously about the outlook for the economy. We are sticking with our view that interest... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Could North Korea be the next Vietnam? Ahead of his meeting with Kim Jong Un in Hanoi this week, Donald Trump tweeted that North Korea had “more potential for rapid growth than any other”. While North Korea’s natural resources... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Indonesia’s current account? Indonesia’s current account deficit should narrow this year, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates, as some analysts are now predicting. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to remain on hold this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, and given the improved performance of the rupiah as well as the less hawkish tone of the central bank’s press conference, we are... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: May interest rate cut looking more likely The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates unchanged today, but with inflation set to continue falling back over the coming months, we think that the BSP will soon start to unwind... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, no tightening likely in 2019 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today, but sounded surprisingly upbeat on the outlook for the economy. While this suggests that a further rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but the slightly more dovish statement supports our view that rate cuts will creep onto its agenda later this year. Whereas the... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates this year Today’s decision from the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep rates on hold, and the downgrade in its forecasts, adds weight to our view that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2019. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: monetary policy outlook depends on rupiah Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its policy rate unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, while there was nothing in the central bank’s statement to suggest that further rate hikes are imminent... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Minimum wage hike to weigh on growth A further sharp rise in the minimum wage in Korea at the start of this month is likely to drag heavily on the labour market again this year, further holding back employment growth and household... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we take a look at the important elections that are set to take place across Emerging Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: rates to be left unchanged next year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left its policy rate on hold at 1.375% and gave little indication in its accompanying statement that it is in any hurry to adjust its policy setting anytime soon. We... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
