Asia Economics Update Thailand: strong baht will not stop rate hikes There are good reasons for the Bank of Thailand not to hike interest rates at its next meeting, as it currently appears determined to do. But currency strength is not one of them. 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today increased the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with growth... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the recent jump in oil prices mean for Asia? The biggest impact of a period of sustained higher oil prices would be in India and the Philippines, whose current account deficits would be pushed even more into the red, putting further downward... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank in no rush to raise rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375% against a backdrop of strong economic growth and low inflationary pressures. The fairly dovish tone of the CBC’s... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes likely in the Philippines Today’s 50bp rate hike in the Philippines comes in response to a further rise in inflation and is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We are expecting rates to rise by at least a further... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. With the rupiah set to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, we expect at least two... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update KORUS signed, but protectionist threat remains The revised Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) that was formally signed yesterday removes one of the potential downside risks for Korean exporters. However, with the US-China trade war intensifying... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The winners and losers from the latest tariffs on China US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have a significant impact on most economies in Emerging Asia, including China. Over the long term there could even... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports to slow, even if trade war is avoided Asian exports are holding up well for now, but this strength is unlikely to last. Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Most central banks unlikely to follow the Philippines Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to tighten monetary policy aggressively over the rest of this year. The Philippines may even call an emergency policy meeting in the face of soaring inflation... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak labour market to drag on Korea’s economy Korea’s labour market has deteriorated significantly in recent months, and August data due tomorrow are likely to show that conditions remain weak. The government unveiled plans for a sharp rise in... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indonesian rupiah? Supporting the rupiah is increasingly becoming the central pre-occupation for Bank Indonesia and the government. We think the central bank will raise interest rates at least twice more before the end... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
