Africa Economics Update South Africa: In recession even before Gordhan sacking New data show that South Africa’s economy was already contracting before the latest political drama. While we think that things will get better later in the year, risks to our above-consensus growth... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017 Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates, but hints that cuts are coming Nigeria’s central bank held its key rate on hold again, but we expect that policymakers will cut rates later this year as inflation slows and the economy remains weak. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Recession continues, but non-oil GDP picks up Nigeria’s economy continued to contract in Q1, albeit at a slowing rate. Fading problems in the oil sector and the improvement of the non-oil sector suggest that growth will return in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Narrow budget deficit obscures fiscal strains Despite some fiscal loosening, we expect that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will be just 2.5% of GDP in 2017. But this measure provides a misleading sense of the country’s fiscal health. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q1 Surprisingly strong retail sales figures support our view that the South African economy held up better in Q1 than many feared. The effect of recent political turbulence, however, will not be felt... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan statistics: Painting a flattering picture? The lead-up to Kenya’s general election in August is coinciding with rising scepticism in the country about the quality of official economic figures. In this Watch, we will lay out why we are... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Industrial sectors held up in Q1 Mining and manufacturing figures show that both sectors unexpectedly strengthened at the end of Q1. This may cushion the impact of any hit to consumer confidence caused by recent political turbulence. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Talk of a manufacturing-led boom is overdone The success of Ethiopia’s fledgling manufacturing sector distinguishes the country from its African peers. But comparisons with Asia’s manufacturing-led boom are, at least as yet, premature. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Business confidence holds up This week’s survey indicators provided mixed signals regarding the economic effect of political turbulence in South Africa. But they do, at least, suggest that the immediate economic hit may have been... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel After a year of contraction, the economies of Nigeria and Angola are finally recovering. Growth will stay weak by recent standards, but will probably outpace overly-bearish consensus expectations. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets weather another storm The relative resilience of South African financial markets in the face of the latest political turbulence has prompted us to revise our end of year rand forecast from R15/US$ to $14/US$. Markets... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: A key African growth star in 2017 Ghana’s new government inherited an economy that was already turning the corner. After years of underperformance, growth in Ghana will accelerate sharply in 2017. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Quantifying the economic costs of political tensions Fears that last month’s cabinet reshuffle will knock South Africa’s economy off course have dominated the headlines. But it will be some time before we have enough information to fully quantify the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
