Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbles Activity data suggests that South Africa’s economy had a weak start to the year. Even so, we expect that growth will gain traction later this year, and that the economy will weather the recent... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African fiscal policy: What would be the first sign of a shift? South Africa’s cabinet reshuffle probably won’t have a significant effect on fiscal policy in 2017/2018. In this Update, we highlight what to watch for as the new finance minister settles into his... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: How could Zuma go? Mounting opposition to President Jacob Zuma has sparked speculation that he could be forced from office. In this Update, we examine the mechanics of removing a South African president. 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Balance sheet stronger than many assume S&P’s decision to cut South Africa’s credit rating to “junk” has focused attention on the country’s current account and budget deficits. But South Africa’s balance sheet is actually in better shape... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Cabinet reshuffle rocks markets Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle has hit market sentiment towards South Africa. While the move will have an immediate political impact, the negative economic effects may be less significant than some... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the latest Zuma-Gordhan struggle In this Update, we provide several scenarios outlining how the political drama sparked by rumours that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be sacked could develop, and what it means for markets. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales stumble The fall in retail sales in January is disappointing given the improving picture painted by yesterday’s mining and manufacturing figures. Even so, we expect that growth will pick up later in the year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output figures suggest growth picking up The latest output figures all support our view that the worst of South Africa’s economic slump is now behind us. We expect that economic growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa grants crisis: Edging towards the cliff edge The looming shutdown of South Africa’s social grant system could temporarily cut consumption by about 0.4%-pts of GDP per month. Policymakers will probably be able to fudge a last-minute deal to keep... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
