Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018 Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & Nigeria Interest rates were kept hold today in Kenya & Ghana, and we expect that both will see rate cuts in 2018. Nigeria’s MPC was unable to meet, but policy there will probably also loosen later this year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish language South African policymakers held their key rate at 6.75% today, but a dovish tone suggests that they have abandoned November’s tightening bias. We expect that the next move will be a 25bp cut in early... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4 Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: ANC drama caps good year for African assets The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4 Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference Long simmering political tensions within the African National Congress (ANC) will come to the boil next week when the ruling party meets for its national conference. But while the summit has cast a... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy getting into gear Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
