Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (March 2024)

The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying...

10th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.4% y/y in March, but the further rise in core services inflation to a 10-month high last month adds weight to our view that Banxico will pause the...

9th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Chile’s inflation to 3.7% y/y in March has increased the chances of the central bank delivering another 75bp cut at its next meeting in May, although we still think...

8th April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2024)

The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q4 2023)

The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2024)

The breakdown of Brazil’s February mid-month inflation reading of 4.5% y/y showed that core services inflation remained elevated. And while further 50bp cuts in the Selic rate next month (to 10.75%)...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy remained very weak at the end of last year and we think the recovery this year will be slower than most anticipate. At the margin, the...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024)

The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further fall...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional)

The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read