Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, 4.45% y/y in the first half of July, was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation. This, coming alongside... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least. 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024) The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024) The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2024) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico’s Election Result The ruling Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is on course to be declared the country’s next (and first female) president after Sunday’s election and the party’s coalition also appears to be on... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by another jump in agricultural price inflation. But core services inflation remained uncomfortably strong... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2024) The 1.9% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q1 confirms that the economy is gathering momentum following a weak 2023 and has prompted us to revise up our (once above consensus) 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.8... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read