Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s next government faces a fiscal reckoning Brazil’s next government will inherit a fiscal position that requires fiscal tightening to the tune of 3.0% of GDP to stabilise the public debt ratio. A Bolsonaro victory would offer a path towards... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s election: the state of play one month out Brazil’s presidential election race has tightened sharply, with polls now pointing to a close run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The candidates offer markedly different economic and foreign... 3rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia ’s ugly “Truth Budget” puts fiscal risks in focus The big revisions to Colombia’s fiscal projections reflect the previous government’s fiscal slippage and imply an even larger squeeze is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising. And it... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s uneven growth to persist Growth in Argentina’s economy remains unbalanced and we think that large parts of it (outside mining and agriculture) will continue to struggle over the rest of Milei’s term due to fiscal tightening... 25th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil facing a corporate debt crisis? A growing number of Brazilian companies are seeking to restructure their debts, and the backdrop of slowing growth and high interest rates will probably cause a further rise in corporate defaults... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: from regional outperformer to laggard The poor performance of Chile’s economy in Q2 has prompted us to revise down our already below-consensus growth forecast to just 0.5% this year. And while we expect a modest pick-up in growth over... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s economy now rapidly losing momentum The soft activity data out of Brazil recently highlights that the bumper Q1 GDP growth was a flash in the pan and points to a slowdown towards 0.3-0.4% q/q over Q2-Q3. Taken together with signs that... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazil’s government borrowing costs so high? Media reports point to renewed scrutiny in Brazil over whether the central bank’s widely watched economic survey is pushing up public sector borrowing costs. But the key issue is that Brazil’s real... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: The challenges facing de la Espriella The major economic challenge facing Abelardo de la Espriella when he assumes Colombia’s presidency on Friday will be stabilising the public finances after years of fiscal largesse under outgoing... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am FX outperformance unlikely to last Currencies in Latin American have fared better than those of other EMs over July, but we expect that outperformance to reverse, with currencies depreciating against the dollar over the next 12-18... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The macro implications of Lat Am’s shift to the right The political shift to the right in Latin America is likely to lead to a stronger geopolitical alignment with the US and economic policies that reduce country risk premia. Economic reforms may allow... 29th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tariffs: modest macro hit, political boost for Lula Brazil has been in the crosshairs in the US’s latest tariff salvo, which will lead to a renewed drop in exports to the US over the coming months. But the impact on GDP growth and inflation should... 28th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s AI export boom: limited domestic spillovers Mexico has retained only a relatively small share of the value of its exports of AI-related products (our best estimate is that domestic value added accounts for around a third of the total). The... 22nd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
