India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly A bigger slice of Apple pie Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index snub will dent pride more than inflows The announcement this week that JP Morgan will not be including Indian local-currency bonds in its benchmark bond indices for the time being will hurt egos in the government, but it is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserves remain more than adequate The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee channel could help Russian oil flow Indian imports from Russia have quadrupled since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, reflecting both higher energy prices and a surge in volumes. So long as Russia’s energy sector is not specifically... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion, rupee settlement mechanism If media reports are to be believed, Indian local-currency bonds are on the cusp of being included in major bond indices for the first time. That could lead to a pick up in foreign inflows, but... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging capital inflows unlikely to be sustained Foreigners’ net purchases of Indian equities have surged to near record levels in recent weeks, helping to fuel the strong rally in the Sensex. We doubt that this can be sustained as global policy... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation to fall back only gradually We now expect CPI inflation to fall back to the 6% ceiling of the RBI's target range by the end of the year as food and energy inflation drags the headline rate lower. But beyond that, we still expect... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Political wranglings weaken BJP’s hand For all its power in parliament’s lower house (Lok Sabha), a majority in the upper house (Rajya Sabha) has remained elusive for PM Modi’s BJP. As the main party in the National Democratic Alliance... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly More left in the locker The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to take edge off current account concerns Data released this week showed that remittances flows into India dwarfed those to elsewhere in the world last year, helping India to maintain a small current account deficit and supporting the... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Birth of the international rupee? We doubt the RBI’s new mechanism to allow international trade to be settled in rupees will see widespread use. One area where it may see some use is in trade with Russia - a rupee settlement mechanism... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
