Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's soaring gold exports won’t prevent mining demise Around half of the recent surge in gold exports reflects soaring prices. While the latter may encourage mining firms to expand output, it will probably take years for gold production to return to its... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold, equity bear markets, and recessions While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gold going for… gold; OPEC+’s grand plans In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. While much ink has been spilled linking the... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been... 20th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025 Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Commodities Update Is the gold rally over? Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
