Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate credit spreads may end the year near extreme levels Corporate credit spreads have been near historical lows in recent weeks, and we think they will remain close to these levels in the coming months. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rebound in Chinese equities may be sweet, but short Improving sentiment towards Chinese equities has sparked a further rebound over the past month, with stocks there having generally outperformed those elsewhere over this period. While we continue to... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read