Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent... 29th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Global Inflation Watch 2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen... 24th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Bumpy ride back to target Progress in getting back to central bank targets has slowed in several major economies. In advanced economies, a rebound in energy inflation has offset most of the drag on headline rates from lower... 26th April 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Lower core inflation in the pipeline Global inflation has almost halved since September last year and this trend has further to run. Admittedly, the fall in headline inflation so far mainly reflects the drag from lower energy price... 25th July 2023 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Core inflation to fall, but upside risks have grown Headline inflation looks set to fall sharply as energy effects subside and the let-up in product shortages reduces goods inflation further. We also expect services inflation to decrease as demand... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch A year of disinflation Inflation is finally falling and we envisage further sharp declines in almost all economies during 2023. In most cases, this disinflation will be more dramatic than either the consensus of economists... 3rd January 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall more slowly in Europe than in the US There has been growing evidence that pipeline price pressures have eased, underlining our view that inflation will fall sharply next year. Commodity prices and shipping costs have fallen, product... 23rd September 2022 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Hawkish turn to dampen inflation While inflation has broadened out and surprised to the upside in 2022, we maintain the view that it will fall sharply in the year ahead. For one thing, we expect commodity prices to fall. Even if we... 28th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch The point of maximum pain The war in Ukraine has caused price pressures to intensify again and we now expect global headline inflation to be one percentage point higher on average this year than we previously envisaged. Now is... 4th April 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to linger even as headline rates fall The inflation outlook for 2022 will be dominated by three key themes. First, headline rates will fall owing to a mixture of fading re-opening inflation, falling commodity prices, and base effects... 22nd December 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Shortages skew inflation risks to the upside Inflation is set to stay higher for longer than we previously envisaged due to surging energy prices and goods shortages. The boost from energy will go into reverse next year due to base effects and... 11th October 2021 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation is about to jump, but will the rise persist? Inflation will rise sharply in every major economy in the months ahead, driven by a rebound in energy inflation, tax changes, and supply shortages. On average, CPI inflation in the advanced economies... 19th March 2021 · 15 mins read
