Global Inflation Watch A year of disinflation Inflation is finally falling and we envisage further sharp declines in almost all economies during 2023. In most cases, this disinflation will be more dramatic than either the consensus of economists... 3rd January 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall more slowly in Europe than in the US There has been growing evidence that pipeline price pressures have eased, underlining our view that inflation will fall sharply next year. Commodity prices and shipping costs have fallen, product... 23rd September 2022 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Hawkish turn to dampen inflation While inflation has broadened out and surprised to the upside in 2022, we maintain the view that it will fall sharply in the year ahead. For one thing, we expect commodity prices to fall. Even if we... 28th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch The point of maximum pain The war in Ukraine has caused price pressures to intensify again and we now expect global headline inflation to be one percentage point higher on average this year than we previously envisaged. Now is... 4th April 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to linger even as headline rates fall The inflation outlook for 2022 will be dominated by three key themes. First, headline rates will fall owing to a mixture of fading re-opening inflation, falling commodity prices, and base effects... 22nd December 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Shortages skew inflation risks to the upside Inflation is set to stay higher for longer than we previously envisaged due to surging energy prices and goods shortages. The boost from energy will go into reverse next year due to base effects and... 11th October 2021 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation is about to jump, but will the rise persist? Inflation will rise sharply in every major economy in the months ahead, driven by a rebound in energy inflation, tax changes, and supply shortages. On average, CPI inflation in the advanced economies... 19th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Central banks to look through higher inflation Energy price base effects will drive up inflation in the first half of 2021, but central banks will look through this. Indeed, in most cases, inflation should be around or below target over the second... 17th December 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Policy stimulus won’t boost inflation in the near term The effects of demand weakness should continue to dominate those of supply constraints, leaving underlying inflation subdued in most parts of the world over the next few years. Policy measures... 21st September 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Fragile demand to keep underlying inflation subdued Over the next few months, inflation will be dominated by oil price effects as the previous slump unwinds and headline rates rise from their current lows. Some components of core inflation, such as... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Coronavirus crisis to drag inflation down While the coronavirus crisis will have both upward and downward effects on prices, we expect the net impact to be significantly disinflationary, for the advanced economies at least, over the next year... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to change little in 2020, even as oil prices rise Inflation in developed markets is likely to be stable in 2020 as a rise in energy inflation is offset by a drop in core. We forecast oil prices to rise to over $70pb in the coming years, so energy... 20th December 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to soften, regardless of oil prices Inflation has fallen in most economies, due partly to lower energy inflation. Our forecast that oil prices will stabilise in the months ahead is subject to upside risks from tensions in the Middle... 20th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks shifting to the downside Price pressures have weakened further against a backdrop of worsening prospects for the global economy. The recent fall in the oil price implies that energy effects will drag on headline inflation in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
