Global Economics Chart Book Surveys giving mixed messages at start of Q2 Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite... 12th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial... 13th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Credit growth slowing even before banking strains Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. We have written many... 17th March 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Labour market resilience starting to fade The latest data suggest that the labour market strength, which has been a key feature of advanced economies this year, might be coming to an end. Admittedly, unemployment rates have generally been... 14th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Major economies struggling for different reasons The latest data have revealed that the world’s major economies are all struggling, but for different reasons. In Europe, the energy crisis is largely behind the recent softness in consumer and... 14th September 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Weak Q2 may be a sign of things to come Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the... 15th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Weak consumer confidence and renewed supply risks World GDP appears to have expanded at a below-trend pace in Q1 as high inflation limited real consumer spending and supply shortages and Omicron waves continued to disrupt activity. March’s broad... 14th April 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Growing threats to global growth and inflation We warned at the start of the year that global growth would disappoint, while inflation would surprise to the upside in 2022 and recent events have added to those concerns. The surge in commodity... 15th March 2022 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Book Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
