Europe Economics Update SNB less likely to hike than ECB The SNB is sure to leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. And higher oil and gas prices, as well as our revised ECB forecast, mean we think rate cuts are now unlikely this year. However... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German economy still weak despite fiscal loosening Even though fiscal policy in Germany is being loosened significantly, signs of a recovery in activity have been tentative at best. Our base case remains that activity will pick up this year but a... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulus With Germany’s fiscal stimulus now beginning to show up in the data, we think the increase in defence and infrastructure spending may be even slower and smaller than we had assumed – but that may be... 24th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ housebuilding subdued, civil engineering growing There is likely to be an increase in civil engineering activity in the euro-zone this year as Germany’s government boosts infrastructure spending. However, we think that this boost will be smaller... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone productivity to remain slow Data released this morning confirm that euro-zone productivity growth remained sluggish last year. While productivity is already benefitting from AI in the US, we expect it to stay slow in the euro... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consensus overcautious on Spanish consumers While the consensus expects economic growth in Spain to slow in 2026, we think that strong consumption will keep the economy growing at a similar pace to the 2.8% recorded last year. 9th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several more months While the ECB left rates on hold today and put a positive spin on the outlook for the economy, we think its next move is likely be a rate cut, albeit not until much later in the year. 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
