Climate Economics Update EU’s CBAM takes carbon pricing global The looming introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the start of 2026 will finally extend the “polluter pays” principle to emissions imported into the bloc. This report –... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe being left behind in the AI boom While huge investment in AI has been driving US GDP growth this year, Europe has seen a negligible boost to investment. And it seems unlikely that AI investment in Europe will increase by much in the... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of Next Generation EU We estimate that the EU’s pandemic recovery scheme, Next Generation EU (NGEU), will have boosted GDP in countries such as Greece and Italy by around 1.5% over its six-year lifetime. It therefore... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro more likely to fall than rise from here The euro has had a stellar year so far, holding onto most of the gains that it made following Germany’s fiscal announcement in March and the US tariff shock in April. But we think it is more likely to... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s PM resignation: what next? The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Europe’s populists copy Italy’s fiscal restraint? In principle, the relatively cautious fiscal policy that Giorgia Meloni’s government has followed in Italy offers a model that other right-wing populist parties could follow. But in practice, with the... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s good fiscal performance continue? Italy’s public finances have held up better than expected over the past two years or so despite the economy remaining sluggish. That is partly due to policies that pre-date Giorgia Meloni’s government... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus: slower and smaller than most expect Recently released details about Germany’s fiscal plans suggest that it may take until the middle of next year to ramp up spending and that less of it will go on infrastructure than initially expected... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB and keep rates on hold The Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 2% next week as recent economic data has been stronger than expected, reducing the need for further loosening. While the risks are towards are a further cut... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports still reslient Data published today show that euro-zone exports were little changed in July and that, after a surge due to front-running earlier in the year, they have settled around their average level over the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold, for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The Bank is unlikely to change interest rates again... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
