Climate Economics Update EU tariffs not stopping China’s EV exporters Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices will continue to climb High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deal or no deal, trade negotiations will continue Whatever transpires in EU-US trade talks next week – deal, no-deal or an extension – tensions over transatlantic trade relations are likely to persist throughout President Trump’s second... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe afford NATO targets? If it is implemented in full and funded through borrowing, the target for NATO members to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could push debt burdens up by 10% of GDP or more over the next... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget: stimulus confirmed, deficit above 3% Germany’s budget plans for 2025-29 confirm that the much anticipated big fiscal stimulus is coming and leave us comfortable with our view that GDP growth will pick up significantly from next year and... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Downward trend in EZ services inflation will continue May’s steep decline in euro-zone services inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter. But looking through that effect, services inflation is on a downward trend that we expect to continue. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How fast will euro-zone wage growth fall? Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target. 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably has one cut left The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% was in line with expectations and the messaging in the press conference suggests that a pause at the next meeting in July is most likely. We... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe-US trade talks after the US court ruling Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
