Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums Since the UK’s Brexit vote, eurosceptic parties elsewhere have increased their calls for referendumson EU or euro membership. While the potential for eurosceptics to gain power and hold votesvaries... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat are Italy’s banks? Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery? If Spain’s upcoming election returns an anti-austerity coalition to power then there would probably be an immediate rise in government bond yields. But whatever the result, much-needed reforms are... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greek debt ever be sustainable? The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy’s recovery continue? After years of recession, the Italian economy returned to growth last year and further policy support could see the recovery pick up slightly in 2016. But there has been little improvement in the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read