Europe Economics Focus How hard will higher interest rates hit Ireland? The Irish economy looks likely to be one of the heaviest sufferers from the upward trend in eurozone interest rates. As such, the consensus view that Irish economic growth will barely slow over the... 18th September 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain heading for a hard landing? Spain has enjoyed one of the fastest rates of expansion in the euro-zone in recent years, thanks largely to rapid growth in domestic demand and, in particular, household spending. But several factors... 17th August 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus World Cup 2006 - a timely kick for Germany? In less than three weeks’ time, the 2006 football World Cup kicks off in Germany. Our analysis suggests that, while the overall effects of the tournament on the German economy are unlikely to be very... 23rd May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The German recovery - not just a one year wonder? While expectations of the performance of the German economy this year have become significantly more optimistic as the various forward-looking indicators have strengthened, most forecasters still... 8th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Commodity prices: current highs are not sustainable Commodity prices are now unsustainably high. We expect supply to continue to rise rapidly, since rising prices have greatly increased producers’ profitability. Mineral reserves are more than adequate... 5th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italian elections: Prodi probably the lesser of two evils Italian voters are facing a choice between two pre-determined coalitions in the general election on 9th-10th April - the centre-left Union coalition under Romano Prodi, currently leading by 3-5% in... 5th April 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone consumers finally ready to spend? For the first time in a number of years, the conditions are in place for a significant acceleration in the growth of consumer spending in the euro-zone. This should ensure that both GDP growth and... 29th March 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much should we worry about US protectionism? The increase in protectionist pressures in the US is likely to come to a head in April, when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. In a worst case this could result in a trade war with far... 21st March 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Global asset prices at risk from higher Japanese rates In this Focus we argue that monetary tightening in Japan is a potential trigger for a sharp correction in bond markets and other asset prices in the West. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to start to... 16th February 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Are US Bonds Over-valued? Our analysis suggests that US bonds are currently overvalued, with ten year bond yields around 0.5- 1.0% below long-term sustainable levels. There are two key factors underpinning this conclusion. 31st January 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue? The rebound in the dollar is looking increasingly over-extended. Shifting interest rate differentials are still the most common explanation of recent dollar moves against the euro. But these cannot... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Where will euro-zone rates peak? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said little new in his testimony to the European parliament today. But whether the ECB begins to raise rates in December (as now seems likely) or early in 2006, there... 21st November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the ECB keeping government bond yield spreads low? A number of commentators have argued that the ECB is inadvertently keeping euro-zone government bond yield spreads artificially low because of the way it provides liquidity to the banking system. In... 19th October 2005 · 1 min read