Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why and how will the euro-zone break up? Recent developments in the euro-zone have supported our view that a limited form of break-up will commence this year with the exit of Greece. But there are clear risks of a bigger break-up. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Lessons from the Icelandic crisis Three years after entering a depression, Iceland has staged an impressive turnaround, which, on the face of it, bodes well for the peripheral euro-zone economies that have suffered from similar... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Icelandic crisis Three years after entering a depression, Iceland has staged an impressive turnaround, which, on the face of it, bodes well for the peripheral euro-zone economies that have suffered from similar... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Italy close to buckling? Italy’s recent austerity measures and ECB purchases of government bonds have brought Italy back from the brink. But we still think that Italy may eventually default, with huge repercussions for the... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can strong growth save the euro? The recent strength of the euro-zone economy has masked widening divergences within the region. And with even in the core economies set to slow over the coming quarters, it would be wrong to expect... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro doomed to fail? The deepening problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies beg the question of whether the single currency union is doomed to fail. If failure means that it does not survive and prosper in its... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain stay out of the crisis? Worries that the euro-zone debt crisis will enter a more dangerous phase by spreading from the smaller peripheral economies to Spain have recently diminished. But we think that it would be premature... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read