Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Europe still face default? Despite the euro-zone economy’s recent recovery, likely constraints on future rates of economic growth and limits to further austerity mean that more of the region’s economies could yet choose, or be... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain finally getting its casa in order? Spain has begun to resolve some of its deep economic problems and its recession has eased. But the strong recovery needed to lower unemployment dramatically and ensure that public sector debt does not... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The sinking Dutchman: slump in consumption to deepen By 2014, the Netherlands will have seen an unprecedented fall in household spending. The resulting weakness in the Dutch economy will undermine attempts to address euro-zone imbalances, while... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the recovery in the euro-zone business surveys the real deal? The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has Ireland really found the escape route? Ireland has been widely hailed as a “poster boy” for the euro-zone’s austerity driven crisis response. But the major challenges still facing the economy undermine the view that the country has forged... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro led to convergence or divergence? The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Germany solve the euro-zone crisis? As the German economy struggles to grow, the Government will continue to resist the permanent transfers that the euro-zone’s periphery needs. But it will probably back further extensions to deficit... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone crisis really over? The improvement in market sentiment towards the euro-zone has not been matched by a material change in the troubled countries’ economic and fiscal outlooks. As such, the crisis is not over. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French slump to deepen fiscal fears The French economy is set to fall further behind others in the euro-zone as labour market rigidity holds back competitiveness and household spending is hit by fiscal austerity. This might cause France... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: After the election Even if the Italian general election results in the formation of a stable pro-reform Government, Italy’s huge underlying economic problems suggest that it may only be a matter of time before concerns... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read