Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Finland set to lag behind Nordic neighbours Finland’s dismal post-crisis economic performance is at odds with the ongoing recoveries of its Nordic neighbours. Although these countries share many characteristics, Finland’s economic decline has... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Using another country’s currency is a costly option Unilateral adoption of the euro, which is the currency regime of Montenegro and a number of other countries, might seem to be a potential blueprint for other European countries outside the euro-zone... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to fall further behind Germany The recent underperformance of the French economy compared to Germany reflects fundamentalfactors that will drive an even greater wedge between the two economies over time. Thisdivergence will... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Sweden the Nordic Japan? Fears that Sweden might be about to enter a Japanese-style “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation are not entirely without foundation. But we think that Sweden should be able to avoid such an... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Is Sweden the Nordic Japan? Fears that Sweden might be about to enter a Japanese-style “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation are not entirely without foundation. But we think that Sweden should be able to avoid such an... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy really stop its debt rising? Contrary to official forecasts, Italy’s huge public debt is unlikely to fall over the coming years. Given the size of the economy, this will leave not only Italy in a very precarious position, but... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is France resolving its problems? France is beginning to tackle its long-standing economic problems. Although a weak labour market and additional fiscal austerity will weigh on the economy this year, growth should pick up in 2015... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Banking union: a step rather than a leap forward The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong can the euro-zone recovery get? Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone enjoy a "creditless recovery"? The recent pick-up in the euro-zone economy stands in marked contrast to the accelerating contraction in bank credit. Given the importance of banks to the region, a “creditless recovery” will not be... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read