Europe Economics Focus Where will the downturn leave the public finances? While governments across the developed world are stepping in to shore up their ailing economies, the fiscal boost in the euro-zone looks set to be fairly modest. With a gradual economic recovery... 27th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The road to deflation? Inflation pressures across the world are set to fade rapidly over the coming months. Indeed, with oil prices plummeting, food prices set to fall and much weaker levels of demand and activity likely to... 16th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will the downturn hit the labour market? One consequence of the global economic downturn will be a severe deterioration in labour market conditions. In the euro-zone, we expect unemployment to rise from 11.3 million to 14.5 million by the... 16th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone slowdown – inflation squeeze or credit crunch? The downturn in the euro-zone economy largely reflects the temporary squeeze from high inflation rather than a fundamental adjustment triggered by the credit crunch as is the case in the US and UK... 23rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French consumers – slowdown, not slump Recent data on the French household sector have flattened hopes that healthy consumer spending growth would prevent a sharp economic slowdown. With inflation soaring, consumer confidence at a record... 12th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: is the prognosis terminal for Europe's sick man? In recent months, the outlook for the Italian economy has deteriorated at an alarming pace. While economists are unanimous in their view that Italy will continue to lag well behind the euro-zone, we... 28th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the credit crunch prompt a Swiss recession? nd’s dependence on the troubled financial services sector points to the risk of an extremely hard landing. We think that the consensus forecasts for Swiss GDP growth are much too complacent and see... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will the credit crunch prompt a Swiss recession? Switzerland’s dependence on the troubled financial services sector points to the risk of an extremely hard landing. We think that the consensus forecasts for Swiss GDP growth are much too complacent... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable are Spanish banks to a property crash? The Spanish banking system looks in relatively good health compared to those of some other eurozone economies. Nonetheless, a major adjustment in the domestic property sector could still cause banks... 27th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Housing and the credit crunch in Europe There are growing concerns that the credit crunch could trigger a sharp downturn in European housing markets with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. But while euro-zone house price... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Ireland: After the party… Recent news on the Irish economy has supported our view that expectations of a relatively soft landing after the boom of the last decade are too optimistic. We now expect the economy to grow by just 1... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to outshine Germany this year With the export-driven recovery in Germany faltering as global demand weakens, a healthy consumer sector should stand France in good stead to make up ground on its larger neighbour. While German GDP... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will it rain in Spain? Most commentators are agreed that the Spanish economy is heading for a slowdown. But we think the “consensus” forecast of a relatively soft landing is too optimistic. We expect a major downturn in the... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How are German consumers feeling? Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have suggested that German consumers are in schizophrenic mood. While they remain pretty upbeat about the economic outlook, they have yet to translate that into... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read