Europe Economics Focus Who is most at risk from deflation? Along with other regions, the euro-zone remains at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. But the threat posed by deflation varies considerably between different countries. Spain and... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can France maintain its lead? France is likely to give up its recent status as the euro-zones star performer in the next two years, losing ground mainly to Germany. But with household finances and the banking sector in a fairly... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much slack is there in the euro-zone? The damaging effects of the recession and financial crisis have almost certainly hit the euro-zone’s productive potential, suggesting that conventional estimates of spare capacity exaggerate the... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain: How long will the pain last? Like some other deficit economies, Spain has so far weathered the global economic slump surprisingly well. But this is unlikely to last. We still expect Spains considerable economic imbalances to lead... 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: is something moving under the surface? The old adage goes that if you ask ten economists their views on something you get ten different answers. But there is one topic where nearly all economists agreed some years back: the prognosis for... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Europe inevitably lag behind? Hopes that Europe might weather the global economic storm relatively well have been shattered as the region has followed the US into an extremely severe recession. Sadly, a reliance on exports will... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how serious is the threat of a euro-zone default? With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro... 23rd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB ever catch up? The Federal Reserve’s decision to embark on an even bolder program of quantitative easing has left the ECB apparently lagging still further behind other central banks in tackling the economic crisis... 19th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What happened to German competitiveness? The particularly sharp collapse in German exports appears to reflect a combination of unfavourable transient factors, rather than a fundamental and permanent loss of competitiveness. This won’t... 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how heavily will Europe suffer? Despite the recent weakness in the region, there are still reasons to think that at least some parts of Europe might suffer a shallower and shorter downturn than that underway in the United States... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read