Equities

financial markets

What's the outlook for equities?

Explore and download our forecasts for major DM and EM equities indices and projected equities returns via this interactive dashboard.

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Tariffs to limit any upside for equities

We now forecast that the S&P 500 will end this year at 5,500. This is much lower than we previously anticipated, for two reasons. The first is the announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed, which we suspect will mean that the economic backdrop will not be conducive to a rally in equities. The second is a recent shift in the AI narrative, which has shaken our conviction that "big tech" will drive up the index. Given this neutral view of US tech stocks, we doubt that that equities in the US will outperform those in the rest of the world much this year.

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