Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will at least allow... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Low vaccine coverage makes variants the key risk Low vaccine coverage means that the threat to economic recoveries from the highly-contagious Delta variant is much larger in the emerging world than in developed economies. And EMs will take longer to... 29th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook New virus waves to drag on the recovery The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see... 28th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Uneven vaccine roll-out to drive multi-speed recovery China’s recovery is already in full swing, and economies elsewhere in Asia and in Emerging Europe will recover lost ground relatively quickly over the next year. But slow vaccine roll-out and... 27th January 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook An uneven recovery An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and... 23rd July 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging prospects Several large emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia and India, should emerge from recent weak patches over the coming quarters. But at an aggregate level, that will be offset by slowdowns... 11th October 2019 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
