Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on Russia’s Duma election Russians head to the polls from Friday in the country’s first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine. While the outcome is not in doubt, the result will offer clues about public... 16th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 GDP shows clearer signs of rebalancing Turkey’s GDP expanded by 1.1% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in a year, but beneath the surface there were clear signs of softening domestic demand, with household consumption and imports both... 31st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q2 rebound doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The rapid recovery in Israel’s GDP in Q2 confirms that the start of the Iran war had only a minor and temporary effect on the economy, and GDP growth now looks on course to exceed 4% over this year as... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economy still struggling to rebalance While Turkey has come through the energy shock without major balance of payments strains, the trade-off facing policymakers between reducing inflation and restoring external balance is getting starker... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania's economy faces a long road to recovery Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
