Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gold reserve plan highlights fiscal pressures Proposals by Polish policymakers to use valuation gains from the central bank’s gold reserves to finance defence spending highlight the growing strain on the public finances from the large budget... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: below-target inflation to prompt more easing Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has surprised to the downside in recent months and is now below central banks’ targets. While we expect inflation to rise by year-end, it will follow... 24th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does Hungary need a US financial backstop? Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
