Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: A close call in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia has so far held off on rate cuts, but with first quarter growth slowing sharply, inflation at a four-year low, and external risks mounting, we expect the central bank to begin its... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea construction slump, BI on hold Korea’s economy remains in the doldrums, with figures published earlier this week showing the economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter. Investment was particularly weak, dragged down by a sharp... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tariff exemption boost, Singapore goes to the polls The recent US decision to exempt a range of electronics—including smartphones, semiconductors, and TVs—from tariffs offers temporary relief to Asian exporters, particularly Taiwan, where over 60% of... 17th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Relief in Asia Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs offers welcome breathing room for Asia (outside China), and the region should avoid the worst of the fallout of the trade war. While the 10% universal tariff... 11th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Tariffs centre stage as rupiah wobbles Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on all automotive imports from April 3rd could have significant consequences for parts of Asia, particularly Korea and Japan, where auto exports account for... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: dovish central bank as political turmoil continues The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes highlight growing concern over the economy. Given the deteriorating outlook, we expect the BoK to cut rates by a further 75bps this year, a more dovish stance than... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte in the dock, Korea’s welcome workforce shift The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC will not have any direct economic consequences, but it shines a light on the deepening political instability in the Philippines, particularly... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly From tariffs to troops: what Trump means for Taiwan The focus of Trump’s tariff measures may soon extend beyond China, Mexico, and Canada, with Taiwan emerging as a likely target due to its large trade surplus with the US. While potential reciprocal... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jump in Korea’s fertility rate, Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years. However, we think this was mainly due to a post-COVID rebound in marriages... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s budget, Trump auto tariffs, BoK to cut Singapore’s budget for the upcoming fiscal year contained a number of giveaways designed to boost support for the government ahead of elections, which must be held by November. In terms of the... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will be hit hardest by Trump’s latest tariff threats? President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: What would a global trade war mean for Asia? Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on China (along with those threatened for Mexico and Canada) could prove to be the start of a protracted trade war. Other countries in Asia could benefit if penal tariffs... 7th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Further easing ahead in Pakistan and Sri Lanka Pakistan’s central bank cut interest rates by 100bps at its scheduled meeting earlier this week. But with the economy recovering, inflation concerns continuing to linger and the central bank sounding... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: How vulnerable is Korea to a second Trump presidency? Our assumption is that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all US imports (including on Korea), most likely sometime in the second quarter. On its own this would not have a huge impact on Korea, since a... 24th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s political crisis, BI’s surprise cut, Trump and Asia There are growing signs that the economy in Korea is being affected by the political crisis. This is one of the key reasons why we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle soon, following... 17th January 2025 · 8 mins read
