Commodities Weekly Wrap Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Lower agriculturals supply will mean higher prices for longer The outlook for global agricultural supply has deteriorated since the start of the year as a result of extreme weather, the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the prospect of an El Niño weather... 4th August 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap A last-minute Black Sea grains deal is not guaranteed For the most part, commodity prices rose this week. A weaker US dollar in the wake of a lower-than-expected June CPI reading in the US was a key factor boosting prices. Not surprisingly, the prices of... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño unlikely to fire up the price of all staples El Niño is coming but the picture is more nuanced than one of doom and gloom for global production of all crop types. For corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, larger harvests in some regions can outweigh... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap US crude exports rise; China’s demand to drive prices There wasn’t a consistent direction to commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia rose, indicating stronger competition for LNG cargos. Meanwhile, most industrial metals prices... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap Growing upside risks to our grains price forecasts With the Fed still hinting at more interest rate increases, the dollar strengthened and contributed to declines across most commodity prices this week. One of the few prices that did increase was the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap Data and debt ceiling to move prices next week Commodity prices generally fell this week, as investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate rose on concern about the persistence of high inflation. The dollar also strengthened... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap US data the key driver of prices next week Dealmaking was a major driver of commodity prices this week. The 11th hour extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative alleviated fears of Ukraine’s grain exports being cut off from world markets... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack Demand concerns a lingering headwind for prices Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as... 16th May 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Outlook The energy crisis is over, but prices to stay elevated We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices... 31st March 2023 · 41 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Constrained supply to bolster grains prices for longer We now expect lower supply of grains over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down. We... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap Energy supply concerns take a back seat… for now Energy markets took centre stage this week as demand concerns outweighed supply concerns, dragging prices down. Even the decision by OPEC+ on Monday to cut oil output quotas for October by 100,000 bpd... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
