Commodities Overview Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Shift in spending could hit demand for commodities Although world trade volumes are likely to hold up for a while yet, a reversal of some of the shift in spending patterns caused by the pandemic is likely to weigh on commodity demand. This is another... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Jump in China commodity imports a flash in the pan China’s imports of key commodities rose almost across the board in August, but we doubt that this is the start of a new upwards trend. Instead, with many of the factors that had boosted demand now... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Overview US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Overview China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Overview China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar no longer in a sweet spot Even after accounting for a fall in Brazilian production and a rise in global demand, we still expect the size of the global sugar market surplus to increase in 2021/22, which will weigh on prices. 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read