Commodities Update China’s PMIs suggest commodities demand is subdued China’s PMI aren’t consistent with some of the worst fears around China’s reopening recovery and weak commodities demand. But neither are they positive enough to warrant the boost to prices, such as... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño puts your mochaccino at risk If the weather forecasters are right, El Niño conditions have arrived in the Pacific and are set to build over the next few months. The negative impact on agricultural production will depend upon the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Overview China’s imports firing on all cylinders in May Growth in China’s commodity imports generally was strong in May, with a notable rise in crude oil imports. While the data are consistent with our above-consensus outlook for China’s growth this year... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch Five key takeaways from Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting Oil output will be more constrained in the second half of this year if the OPEC+ members stick to their recently-announced production quotas. However, we have also raised our forecast of Russian... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to solid, if unexciting, demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that the economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace of growth has slowed. While a lower reading for construction activity is a negative for metals prices, the persistent... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to remain soft China’s commodity imports were generally weak in April. We suspect that import volumes generally could soften a bit further as any reopening effect on commodity demand fades and export demand... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to struggle in the next few months The key message from the latest China PMIs is that whilst China’s economy is likely to grow strongly this quarter, momentum is fading. This will be one factor weighing on commodity prices in the near... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar rush won’t last Global sugar prices have surged by over 20% since the start of the year as production estimates in several key producers have been downgraded. We think the supply picture is unlikely to change by much... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports probably close to a peak China’s commodity imports generally rose strongly in March which we think reflects higher demand as a result of the re-opening of the economy. While April data may also be strong, we expect import... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Apr. 2023) The surprise OPEC+ decision to cut oil production sent oil futures curves into steeper backwardation. This doesn’t necessarily mean that market participants see prices falling from here, but rather... 5th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Soft demand outside China a key headwind to prices The March PMIs released for China suggest that the reopening rebound is slowing. While there seems further scope for oil demand to continue to recover, the outlook for metals demand appears much... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities and the spillovers from financial markets While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking China’s NPC for commodities The National People’s Congress reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read