Commodities Update The oil market to flip into a deficit after Q1 The economic disruption caused by the coronavirus means that we now expect the oil market to be in a surplus in Q1 2020, as opposed to the deficit that we had previously envisioned. However, providing... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs already old news China’s PMIs dipped in January, but they offered little indication of the state of the economy in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Though a slump in Chinese activity in Q1 now seems almost... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Is the coronavirus-led collapse in oil prices justified? Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to square the coronavirus-led sell-off in oil markets with the fundamentals. Instead, we think the move is rooted in a marked deterioration in investor... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Phase One deal no bonanza for commodities There has been a muted response in commodities markets to the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China, perhaps because the good news was already priced in. That said, it may also... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Limited upside from Phase One trade deal The deal signed yesterday between the US and China was broadly as expected and has not led us to change our economic forecasts. The apparent ceasefire in the battle over tariffs removes a downside... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to plummet by 20% in 2020 We think that a combination of stronger supply, and weaker demand, growth will push the wheat market into a surplus this year. As a result, we expect wheat prices to drop by about 20% in 2020. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2019 on a high China’s commodity imports were strong in December, and in 2019 as a whole, in part because a number of one-off structural factors boosted volumes. Looking ahead, we expect growth in commodity imports... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Our key calls for the agriculturals in 2020 We think that the prices of wheat and soybeans will tumble this year on the back of high stocks. However, the outlook is more encouraging for the prices of some of other agricultural commodities, such... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity forecasts for 2020 We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities prices this year. While global economic growth will remain subdued, we think it will start to revive over the course of 2020. Therefore... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Good and bad in China’s PMI data China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs remained strong at the end of 2019, which is positive news for commodities demand. However, we think that the ongoing slowdown in construction... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Far-fetched promises on US agricultural goods We don’t think that China will import the $40bn of agricultural goods that it has reportedly pledged to buy from the US. As such, the impact on prices should be fairly minimal. 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trade deal no panacea for soybeans Regardless of the outcome of US-China trade talks, we think lower Chinese consumption will weigh on the price of soybeans next year. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Backdrop not quite as rosy as China’s PMIs indicate China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in November, suggesting that the weakness in the manufacturing sector has eased. While this could provide some support to industrial commodity prices in the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities could play catch-up in 2020 Recent market moves, most notably in US equities, suggest to us that there may be too much bad news priced into commodity markets. Accordingly, we expect a modest rise in commodity indices in 2020... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The rally in US lumber prices is not over yet The price of lumber has surged in recent months. We think that prices will continue to rise in 2020 primarily on the back of ongoing strength in US housing starts and falling lumber supply from Canada... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read