Commodities Update Strong demand set to keep lumber prices high As the US economy continues to recover from virus-related disruption, we expect the housing and retail sectors to rebound. This, along with a stronger Canadian dollar and restricted supply (owing to... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rising China PMIs good news for commodities China’s June PMIs indicated a continued improvement in domestic industrial activity, which should be positive for commodities. However, fading external demand may prove to be a headwind for exports. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to tread water, amid ample supply Weak demand and a recovery in supply should push the sugar market into a surplus in 2020/21. As a result, we forecast that sugar prices will remain low over the coming year. 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Taking a look at our oil price forecasts In light of the recent revision to our China economic growth forecast and our expectation that the rebound in equities has further to run, we have revisited our oil price forecasts for the year ahead... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Revisiting our forecasts … Recent revisions to our macroeconomic and markets forecasts are more positive for industrial metals than oil, and they support our slightly bearish outlook for the price of gold. 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Palm oil prices to drive higher Palm oil consumption will be hit hard by weak biofuel demand in 2020. However, we think that consumption will rebound strongly next season as higher biodiesel mandates incentivise more biofuel... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports close to a trough Although China’s commodity imports volumes dropped in May, we expect the recent infrastructure-related fiscal support measures to lift domestic demand and commodity imports in the coming months. 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Natural rubber to regain some of its bounce by 2021 Consumption of natural rubber (NR) will be hit by sharply lower vehicle production this year. That said, we think that a revival in both demand and oil prices later in the year should give a lift to... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Slow rise in China PMIs no antidote for commodities China’s latest raft of PMIs showed a continued improvement in industrial activity in May, which is positive news for commodities demand. However, the pace of recovery remains slow. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The Brazilian real and commodity prices Our forecast that the Brazilian real will recoup some lost ground by end-2020 should put upward pressure on the prices of its commodity exports. However, other factors, such as the health of the... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Some initial thoughts on China’s NPC At the time of writing, we still lack the detail on China’s policy plans. That said, the headline expansion in the budget deficit and plans to boost credit growth are unequivocally positive for... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The corn market to move into a surplus next season While we generally agree with the USDA’s latest projections for 2019/20, we suspect that they are being too optimistic on agricultural supply in 2020/21. Nevertheless, we expect a pick-up in corn... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports look set to fall China’s commodity imports have held up well so far this year, but weak external orders and subdued domestic demand point to lower volumes in the months to come. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Why have commodities underperformed US equities? The partial recovery in the S&P 500 suggests a return of investor risk appetite. But commodity indices have plumbed new lows. We think a couple of points are worth making about this apparent... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs offer scant support to commodity prices China’s official and unofficial PMIs dipped in April, almost entirely owing to weak export orders. A strong performance by the construction sector provides some relief for industrial metals prices... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update WTI tumbles below zero as the oil storage runs out The spot price of WTI turned negative yesterday in large part owing to the nature of trading in the futures market. That said, the price slump has some fundamental underpinning as demand is very weak... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read