Commodities Update Factoring a vaccine into our 2021 forecasts The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines has prompted us to raise our forecast of global economic activity in 2021, which has positive implications for commodity demand. We think oil demand and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Mounting upside risks for cocoa prices The surge in the price of cocoa this week has come as a number of large risks hang over the supply outlook. But if these risks fail to materialise, we expect prices to fall back over the coming months... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Natural rubber price to hold up … for now Strong demand from China together with constrained production should support the price of natural rubber through the first half of next year. That said, we think that prices will start to fall back by... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update An effective vaccine will be a game-changer Reports of an imminent, and highly effective, vaccine against COVID-19 point to generally stronger commodities demand. Once there is more certainty on the vaccine, we will review our price forecasts. 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports may be normalising China’s commodity import volumes remained high in October, although they eased back from September levels. We expect import volumes to remain solid in the coming months given the strength in economic... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping a close eye on La Niña In the past, La Niña weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean have had a significant impact on agricultural crops and prices. In this Update we consider the risks that the development of La Niña over... 3rd November 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs paint positive picture for commodities China’s October PMI data add weight to our view that Chinese economic growth will continue to accelerate, even though we estimate that the economy is already back to its pre-virus trend. This will... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Surge in China’s commodity imports has further to run The ongoing fiscal-led boost to domestic demand and a stronger renminbi propelled China’s commodity imports higher last month. This tallies with our long-held view that a rapid rebound in the Chinese... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices can take heart from China’s PMIs China’s September PMI readings suggest that the economy is now entering a period of above-trend growth, which is indisputably good news for the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s “buying spree” suits its needs China is ramping up its purchases of US energy and agricultural products as promised in the Phase One trade deal. But instead of reflecting a desire to meet its obligations to the US, we think China’s... 28th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A vaccine could give oil prices a shot in the arm Although a vaccine against COVID-19 may not dramatically alter the near-term economic outlook, we expect it would structurally improve the demand prospects for many commodities and therefore boost... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read