Commodities Update China’s PMIs still underplaying commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A perfect storm at sea The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices to stay hot through the holidays Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to... 6th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs may be understating commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy flatlined in November, but there was good news for commodity demand with the relative strength in the construction PMI. We suspect that underlying activity... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold, geopolitics and the Fed We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up China’s import data for October indicated that its demand for commodities remains robust but we think that further growth in the next couple of months is likely to be modest. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest metals prices to hold steady The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand remains rock solid China imported fewer key commodities in September than in August, but its underlying demand for commodities, especially fossil fuels, remains strong and is only likely to strengthen from here. 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Middle East instability threatens regional LNG exports The conflict between Hamas and Israel will negatively affect Israel’s natural gas exports. However, the bigger concern for global natural gas prices is the risk of the conflict spreading. In view of... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil market implications of Hamas-Israel conflict First and foremost, the renewed fighting between Hamas and Israel since the weekend is a humanitarian tragedy. In this note, we discuss three specific risks to regional oil supply going forward. The... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read