Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year We think the price of gold will ease back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated. Similarly, we expect... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Grain pain is over – wheat prices will remain low Wheat prices have been in decline for most of the past two years. We think that they are now near their trough, but the prospect of another good global harvest in 2024/25 means that we shouldn’t see a... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest an upturn in commodity demand China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up The preliminary China trade data released today suggest that China’s commodities demand was robust in the first two months of the year. Crude imports should stay elevated, but iron ore and coal... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to stable commodity demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Carbon price not out of the woods yet This Update marks the launch of our EU carbon price forecasts and coverage, including an in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and an accompanying dashboard to track market drivers... 22nd February 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Global sugar rush to slowly fade away After a sweet start to the year, sugar prices should take on a more sour note over the rest of 2024. Prices will fall back as El Niño comes to an end and the supply outlook improves but any relaxation... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Some positives in China’s PMI data China PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. Note: Join our... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green demand to spur copper price gains in 2024 After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally? Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read