Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent... 4th April 2024 · 33 mins read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Outlook Looser monetary policy to support prices in 2024 We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we... 26th September 2023 · 28 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to buck the downbeat trend We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect... 29th June 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Outlook The energy crisis is over, but prices to stay elevated We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices... 31st March 2023 · 41 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to remain volatile for now, before falling back Energy prices will remain volatile for the next few months, but should fall back later this year as demand drops back and supply picks up. That said, the shortfall of supply over the last year or so... 1st February 2022 · 20 mins read
Metals Outlook Prices to succumb to weaker demand before long Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in... 27th January 2022 · 19 mins read
