US-China tensions unlikely to subside before election

There is a good chance that the renewal of antagonism between the US and China, this time over the origin of the coronavirus rather than trade, will persist – and might even escalate – in the run up to November’s presidential election. We suspect that President Trump and his administration will stick mostly to threats rather than following through with concrete measures, such as additional tariffs. But, even if it came to the latter, that would not have any significant bearing on our economic forecasts.