The announcement by President Donald Trump of further tariffs on Chinese imports has rattled the markets, but we have long suspected that it was only a matter of time before the trade dispute escalated further. With those tariffs likely to have a more serious impact than previous measures, this reinforces our view that economic growth will slow sharply over the second half of this year, and is another reason to expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a further 50bp by early 2020.
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