The chances of a recession in 2020 are still barely higher than the normal background risk. Our composite 12 month ahead probit model – based on the yield curve, financial conditions and various activity indicators – puts the odds of a recession at only 12%. That is markedly lower than the 20% reading a couple of months ago, with the decline principally due to the un-inversion of the yield curve.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.