The recent surge in coronavirus infections means that economic growth will be slower than we previously assumed in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. As the associated restrictions on activity are eased early next year, however, and highly effective vaccines are rolled out allowing a return to normal life, we expect GDP growth to be stronger than we previously anticipated from the second quarter of next year onwards. The upshot is that, even allowing for the additional weakness around the turn of the year, we now expect GDP growth to be 5.0% in 2021, rather than 4.5%. Furthermore, we are also revising up our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 to 4.5%, from 4.0%.
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