REIT price falls consistent with a 5%-10% value drop
The nearly 40% peak-to-trough fall in US REIT prices points to a fall of around 5%-10% in direct real estate capital values, providing this proves to be a relatively short-lived recession. At a sector level, deeper falls for the retail sub-sector REITs and a smaller decline in the industrial sub-index are also consistent with our forecasts.
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