We believe that buy-to-let (BTL) investors have priced aspiring first-time buyers (FTBs) out of the housing market over the last 3-4 years. Admittedly, BTL did not trigger the abrupt drop in FTB demand that we saw in 2003. As in the past, that was caused by a sharp deterioration in affordability. But the subsequent strength of BTL demand has prevented the weakening in the housing market that would otherwise have occurred and which, in turn, would have boosted demand among FTBs
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