Risk of double-dip rising, Bank of England to do more

It may only be a matter of time before the UK follows its European neighbours into a de facto national lockdown. As a result, there are big downside risks to our already downbeat forecast that GDP won’t rise at all in October, November and December. We think the deteriorating economic outlook will prompt the Bank of England to announce another £100bn of QE at its meeting next Thursday and £150bn more QE in 2021, compared with the consensus forecast that the asset purchase programme will, by the end of this year, be as big as it’s going to get.