Adjusting our forecasts in light of COVID-19 vaccines

A rebound in global economic activity triggered by COVID-19 vaccines will lift the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But one legacy of the crisis is that these countries will have to contend with peak oil demand being reached even sooner. Outside the Gulf, the distribution of vaccines will probably be relatively slow which, combined with scarring effects from the crisis, mean that full economic recoveries are still likely to take many years.