Argentina & IMF, Brazil’s fiscal woes, Mexico-US deal

The market reaction to Argentina’s revamped IMF deal suggests that, while investors believe that sovereign default risks over the next year or so have receded, they remain elevated further out. Meanwhile, the latest budget data from Brazil underline the scale of the fiscal challenge facing the next president.  Finally, the text to the Mexico-US trade deal appears to be imminent, but we don’t expect the new deal to have a major impact on Mexico’s economy.