Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and by disruption to supply in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. The return of supply, currently being constrained by war, sanctions and mismanagement, combined with continued increases in US production against a backdrop of sluggish demand from advanced countries, should drag oil prices lower again over the coming year. The substitution towards gas away from coal should continue supporting US gas prices and allow excess coal to depress prices in Europe.
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