Growth slowing, rates rising

GDP growth across Emerging Europe is likely to slow in 2019, and by more than most anticipate. Turkey’s economy will continue to suffer from the effects of last year’s lira crisis, while the slowdown in Germany will weigh on the highly-open Central European economies. Growth in Russia’s economy is likely to exceed expectations this year, but we are relatively pessimistic on its long-term prospects. Despite the weak economic backdrop, interest rates are likely to be raised in most of the region.